This is one of the most interesting Ballon d’Or races in years. The ceremony takes place in London on 26 October for the first time, a tribute to Stanley Matthews, the award’s first winner, and the competition is fierce. Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Kylian Mbappé can all point to brilliant seasons, the World Cup included. But the England captain has the edge.
Can Yamal Bridge the Kane Gap?
Yamal may well finish in the top three, but has he done enough to beat Kane? He had a stellar season. Despite a hamstring injury late on, he was named La Liga Player of the Season and finished as the league’s top assist provider. He also won the La Liga title and the World Cup. But he came off the bench in Spain’s opener after the injury and scored just one goal at the tournament. Playing from the flank also makes it hard to outscore a central striker like Kane, though that isn’t absolute, as Cristiano Ronaldo outscored most strikers from the wing in his prime as CR7. Yamal’s 17 assists to Kane’s 7 narrow the gap, but not enough: Kane produced 68 goals and assists to Yamal’s 41. Yamal has the trophies, but Kane has the stronger individual numbers.
| Club apps | Club goals | Club assists | League goals | Champions League goals | World Cup goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kane | 51 | 61 | 7 | 36 | 14 | 6 |
| Mbappé | 44 | 42 | 6 | 25 | 15 | 10 |
| Yamal | 45 | 24 | 17 | 16 | 6 | 1 |
Mbappe’s Individual Brilliance vs. Empty Silverware
Mbappé also had a stellar season. He scored 42 club goals, won the Pichichi and took the World Cup Golden Boot with 10 goals. He even finished one goal ahead of Kane in the Champions League, 15 to 14. But Real Madrid won nothing and France fell short of expectations at the World Cup despite reaching the semi-finals. Kane scored 19 more at club level and, with international goals added, 73 to Mbappé’s 58. Winning without a team trophy is rare but not unheard of. According to L’Équipe’s database, Stanley Matthews (1956), Denis Law (1964), Kevin Keegan (1978), Luís Figo (2000) and Cristiano Ronaldo (2013) all won in years with no team trophy. Gerd Müller did the same in 1970 after topping the scoring charts in Europe and at the World Cup. That is the route open to Mbappé, but it’s harder when a rival scored more and won a domestic double.
The Golden Ball Factor
Rodri is also in contention. The former Manchester City midfielder, who joined Barcelona in the last transfer window, captained Spain to a second World Cup, won the Golden Ball, and Spain conceded just one goal all tournament. His club year was a different story. A groin injury and knee trouble left him in and out of City’s side, and he redeemed himself with Spain. Only Paolo Rossi (1982) and Luka Modrić (2018) have won the Golden Ball and the Ballon d’Or in the same year, Would Rodri be the third? Quite unlikely. Modric had an outstanding World Cup campaign in 2018 which saw Croatia lose to France. Meanwhile, the Croatian won a third straight Champions League title same year.
My verdict: Kane first, then Yamal and Mbappé, with Messi a long shot. We’ll know on 26 October.
